When parapsychologists speak of "genuine precognition" they are suggesting that there are some events that resemble precognition at first, but after examination, can be explained in other ways. Because of this, Alan Vaughn, in his book Patterns of Prophecy, lays down some guidelines to help identify "genuine precognition."
1. The prediction must be told or recorded before fulfillment.
2. It must include enough details so that chance fulfillment is unlikely.
3. It must restrict itself to fairly narrow limits of time, or else it must contain details which fix the occasion of fulfillment, e.g., on visiting a certain place.
4. It must be of such a nature that inference from wider knowledge could not have brought it about.
5. It must be clear that suggestions or unconscious knowledge could not have brought it out.
6. The information must not have been in the possession of any other person.
7. It must be possible to exclude telepathy and clairvoyance of a present event or PK as reasonable explanations.
These are stringent qualifications, and rightly so. I agree with these guidelines, and as we saw in our last post, many of the cases mentioned would qualify. However, there are popular stories that would seem to fail this test. Also, when we compare Biblical prophecy with these guidelines, how do they fair?
One famous example of a "precognitive dream" that seems to fall short of these guidelines is the dream that Abraham Lincoln had shortly before he died. In this dream, he walked through the White House amidst sounds of mourning. He arrived in the East Room and found a corpse on a catafalque wrapped in funeral attire. Soldiers were stationed around the catafalque, so Lincoln asked them who had died. They answered, "The President; he was killed by an assassin." At first glance, this seems like quite an example of a precognitive dream, and it very well could have been. The reason many parapsychologists are hesitant about this one is because public officials of high rank are often in danger, and the rituals of their funerals are well known. It could also have been a dream caused by an unconscious or subliminal suggestion. When we compare this story to the guidelines above, it seems to fulfill the requirements of 1-3. However, it seems to fall short in fulfilling the requirements of 4-7. This is not to say that some sort of psychic phenomenon was not involved with this dream, rather what is being said is that it cannot be considered precognitive.
Another famous example comes from the famous psychic Jean Dixon, who claimed to have predicted the assassination of JFK. In 1952 she claimed to have a vision in St. Matthew's Cathedral in Washington. The White House suddenly appeared before her, and she saw the numbers "1960" form above it. As she watched, a dark cloud spread from the numbers and as she explained it, "dripped down like chocolate frosting on a cake" over the White House and a over a man standing in front of it. As she recalls, the man was young, tall, and blue-eyed, with thick brown hair. An inner voice told her that he was a Democrat, and that the President elected in 1960 would die a violent death while in office. She also claimed to have seen two black hands reach up and remove the plaque from the Vice Presidents office. Then she saw an unknown man with a two-syllable name. The second letter was definitely an "s," and the first looked like an "o" or a "q." This seems to refer to Oswald. Therefore, Jean claimed that the 1960 election would be dominated by labor and won by a Democrat. He will be assassinated or die in office, though not necessarily in his first term.
Again, at first glance, this seems like genuine precognition. Jean Dixon has made some remarkably accurate predictions, but she has also made an enormous amount of predictions that have been wrong. The reason some have rejected this as genuine precognition is 1) famous political figures are always at high risk, 2) the chances of a president being a Democrat are better than one in two, 3) a cycle exists in which, since 1840 , every 20 years a president was killed or died in office, though not necessarily in his first term. However, some of the detail seems to defy chance. I am on the fence about this one, but I think it comes pretty close to fulfilling the requirements laid out by Vaughn, so I lean towards this being genuine precognition. There are many other famous anecdotal stories, but time and space permits me from mentioning them.
When it comes to testing in the laboratory, many experiments have been employed to determine how precognition works. If you have kept up with the series, you will be familiar with the name J.B. Rhine. While he was at Duke, he decided to test whether ESP operates outside of time as well as space. In 1933, a precognition card experiments were conducted in which guesses were recorded before the Zener cards were shuffled. In 4,500 runs of 25 Zener cards, Rhine found results which were three million to one against chance. Again, in 1938 he published results from another run of tests with 49 test subjects, in which the odds against chance were one hundred thousand to one. In considering that these results could be a result of psychokinesis (PK), great efforts were taken to rule out this phenomenon. One safeguard was taking the numbers from market reports or local temperature after the guesses were made. Thus, PK was eventually ruled out as an explanation of the test results. To save time and space, I will just say that more and more tests have been run, with more and more controls put in place, all resulting in similar results. The conclusion? Precognition is real.
Yet some still aren't willing to accept genuine precognition, and seek other ways to explain the phenomenon. Here are some other attempts to explain what is happening.
PK as the Cause
I have mentioned this briefly, and it seems that laboratory testing has proven this is not the case...but has it really? While genuine precognition is proven to exists, does that mean one cannot reach the same end, just with different means? This is what the PK position seems to argue. However, some take it a step further. They are not willing to accept the implications of pure precognition because it seems to defy our normal understanding of cause and effect. However, this position falls short, unless you want to to concede both extreme malice and extreme X-men like abilities to those with PK. What do I mean? If PK is the result of precognition, then the person predicting the events is causing the disasters like the Aberfan mine collapse, plane crashes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, assassinations, etc.
The Subliminal Computer Theory
This theory denies precognition, and basically attributes the phenomenon to remarkable telepathy and clairvoyance. It argues that at the very deep levels of the psyche, there is a kind of computer that clairvoyantly scans "etheric pool," or "human aura". In this dimension, many minds come together, and the totality of human knowledge is stored. The mind, upon accessing all this information, makes calculations and brings together an event that will later take place. Granted, some supposedly precognitive events can be explained by the subliminal, but this view cannot explain the laboratory testing...or can it? (More on this at the end of the series).
Deja vu
This really isn't an explanation as much as it is an experience. In fact, it is explained as being the result of forgotten precognitive dreams
The Backward Flow of Time
This is a deep, philosophical and scientific discussion, so I am not going to go all out here. The basic thrust of this view has to do with backwards causation. This theory is based on General Relativity and the Block Universe Theory. Because time is relative, and because the past, present and future exists at once, and our experience of them is because of how our brain processes our existence in space time, cause and effect are actually a blur. This means that a person's consciousness could access and see any "slice" of the block universe. If this doesn't make sense, don't worry, we will talk about it more in the future. Until then, I will just say that I think this position has much to commend.
In the next post, we will look at different models (not explanations) that some have come up with to explain the nature of precognition, as well as getting into the prophets of the Bible.